Docs
How Probability Works
This guide breaks down the mathematics behind solo Bitcoin mining. It focuses on expected value, variance, probability over time, and why realistic planning matters more than optimistic edge cases. Rather than presenting lucky outliers as a strategy, the page explains how hashrate, time, and difficulty interact, why variance dominates short time windows, and how a miner should think about odds when evaluating hardware, electricity cost, and operational patience.
Highlights
- Expected value and variance in plain language.
- Probability over time for miners with different hashrates.
- A realistic framing of odds instead of hype.